A group of approximately twelve hard-line conservatives within the House is pressing Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for a series of vague commitments as they weigh their support, creating uncertainty around his leadership just a day ahead of the critical vote.
The dissenters are primarily seeking guarantees regarding spending cuts and a promise for more involvement from rank-and-file members in future negotiations on significant legislation, concerns that have been voiced by hard-line Republicans for several months.
The two main requests from these conservatives are straightforward: first, they want concrete commitments to real spending cuts; second, they expect Johnson to facilitate member involvement in negotiating legislative packages instead of relying solely on staff. One undecided Republican expressed that members need to negotiate among themselves rather than leaving the discussions to aides.
On Thursday, Johnson expressed optimism regarding the upcoming vote. He remarked that members are discussing desired process changes and indicated a willingness to consider those suggestions, suggesting that the outcome on Friday could be positive.
Challenges arise from the fact that the holdouts have diverse individual concerns, complicating Johnson’s ability to satisfy the entire faction. For instance, Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md), the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, has expressed frustration with how the funding for the Francis Scott Key Bridge’s reconstruction was handled in December’s spending legislation.
Harris wanted to ensure that the bill did not include a provision to rename the bridge, due to calls for change from activists because Key was a slave owner, and he sought flexibility regarding project labor agreements.
According to two sources, Johnson has been firm about not wanting to negotiate separate deals with various factions within the House, which is a strategy that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif..) employed during his contentious election for the position in 2023. “Johnson is very clear that he is not making any side deals. His stance has been extremely firm,” a senior Republican stated on Thursday.
As he addresses these frustrations, Johnson finds himself in a precarious situation. He can afford to lose only one Republican vote in the Speakership election, assuming all members are present. All Democrats are anticipated to vote for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), leaving Johnson with no margin for error due to their guaranteed attendance.
The Speaker has already lost Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who is vocal about his opposition to Johnson’s management of spending issues and collaboration with Democrats over the past year. Another unpredictable element is Rep. Victoria Spartz, who has recently urged Johnson to make several public commitments regarding spending matters.
Following her meeting with Johnson on Thursday, Spartz informed reporters that she would determine her vote on Friday, the day of the election. “We had a constructive conversation; I believe he agrees with many of my points, but delivering on them is the challenge,” Spartz noted.
Several Republican representatives, including Chip Roy (Texas), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Scott Perry (Pa.), and Harris have not publicly stated their positions regarding Johnson’s candidacy. Johnson has spent Thursday at the Capitol engaging with many of these undecided members, continuing discussions he has initiated in recent days.
A senior House Republican commented on Johnson’s strategy, saying, “I am uncertain how long he can maintain this approach, but he is actively conversing with everyone. He is not delegating much of anything.”
This considerable number of Republican holdouts presents a challenge for Johnson’s prospects of retaining the Speaker position on Friday when the House will convene for the 119th Congress and is expected to elect a Speaker before proceeding with any other business.
President-elect Trump has thrown his support behind Johnson, urging Republicans not to “BLOW THIS GREAT OPPORTUNITY” and to swiftly implement the new Republican agenda. However, the holdouts assert that they are working to ensure Johnson is indeed the right leader to execute Trump’s priorities.
During an appearance on “Varney & Co.” on Fox Business, Roy expressed, “I remain undecided, as do several of my colleagues, due to the many failures we witnessed last year, which raise concerns about our ability to advance the president’s agenda.” He further asserted, “Currently, I do not believe he has the votes for Friday.”
Despite this bleak outlook, one holdout indicated a potential shift toward Johnson’s favor. They shared with The Hill that Johnson is “making some progress” by acknowledging past failures and striving to implement systemic changes within his office operations, which is a positive development.
The lawmaker projected that the group would likely support Johnson, though it remains unclear whether that backing would come before the first voting round on Friday or after Johnson potentially faces some failed ballots.
The undecided member stated they would confer with colleagues prior to the vote, saying, “We are probably inclined to support Johnson, but we want to ensure that a vision is clearly articulated and that changes will indeed take place moving forward.”
However, there remains a strong possibility that Johnson will encounter multiple ballots on Friday as hard-liners continue to apply pressure regarding spending and procedural matters.
A contentious issue that was pivotal during McCarthy’s tenure two years ago, concerning the threshold for a “motion to vacate” the Speaker, seems to have been settled this time. This is different from the dynamics in 2023 when holdouts insisted on allowing any single member to initiate a recall vote as a condition for their support.
Leaders of the House Freedom Caucus and anti-chaos conservatives within the Main Street Caucus reached an agreement in November to increase the number of members required to trigger a snap vote for ousting the Speaker to nine, a provision reflected in the House Rules package text released on Wednesday, which members are set to vote on after electing the Speaker. As of Thursday, indications suggested that Republicans were not seeking to revisit this matter.
“A significant amount of that issue appears to have been resolved,” the senior House Republican remarked.
