James Carville, a Democratic strategist famously known for the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid,” has acknowledged his miscalculations regarding the 2024 election and identified economic factors as a crucial reason for the Democratic loss.
In an opinion piece for The New York Times, Carville shared his belief that Vice President Kamala Harris would secure the election but expressed a need to reassess the missteps Democrats have made since Donald Trump’s significant win in November.
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He stated, “I’ve been going over this in my head for the past two months, all the variables, all the what-ifs, all the questions about Joe Biden’s re-election decisions and what kind of Democrat or message might have worked against Donald Trump,” emphasizing the recurring nature of his insights.
He succinctly pointed out that the Democratic defeat stemmed from a fundamental truth: “We lost for one very simple reason: It was, it is and it always will be the economy, stupid.” Carville insists that this principle should guide Democrats in 2025, urging them to maintain focus without being sidetracked by peripheral issues.
Previously, in August, Carville expressed skepticism about whether his long-held belief in the economy’s decisive role in elections still held merit. At that time, President Biden struggled with low approval ratings, even as the economy showed signs of strength and improvement.
“I’m starting to doubt myself a little bit, because this economy is quite good,” Carville noted then. “Maybe it will kick in. And sometimes it takes a while for people to feel it.”
Reflecting on the recent election outcomes, he contended that Trump’s appeal to middle-class and low-income voters was largely driven by economic concerns, regardless of the entire health of the U.S. economy.
“Democrats have flat-out lost the economic narrative. The only path to electoral salvation is to take it back,” he stated. Carville emphasized that public perception plays a critical role in politics, asserting that many Americans view Democrats as disconnected from economic realities, focusing instead on issues they perceive as secondary.
Drawing from his experience as a strategist for former President Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, Carville encouraged Democrats to revamp their messaging on economic matters and prioritize everyday issues that resonate with voters. He criticized the tendency to dwell on social concerns and the legal challenges facing Trump.
“It’s clear many Americans do not give a rat’s tail about Mr. Trump’s indictments — even if they are justified — or about his anti-democratic impulses or about social issues if they cannot provide for themselves or their families,” he added.
Carville argued that Democrats must adopt an aggressive stance with a broadly appealing economic agenda, suggesting a focus on the minimum wage and framing abortion and immigration within the economic discussion.
He also called on Democratic candidates to adapt to the evolving media landscape. Trump’s appearances on popular podcasts, such as Joe Rogan’s, have proven to be an effective strategy in his campaign for 2024.
“To Democratic presidential hopefuls, your auditions for 2028 should be based on two things: 1) How authentic you are on the economy and 2) how well you deliver it on a podcast,” Carville advised in The Times.
His message is clear: “The path forward could not be more certain: We live or die by winning public perception of the economy.”
