Predictions about what 2025 will bring may not align with reality. The lessons from Donald Trump’s first term highlight that even the most prepared individuals can struggle with unpredictability.
His ability to generate high-level uncertainty keeps adversaries off-balance, compelling the media to play catch-up. This dynamic places Trump in a uniquely advantageous position, especially when factoring in his governing strengths.
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The resurgence of Trump’s incessant, Twitter-driven news cycle may resonate with some, but it creates challenges for an American public whose grasp of cultural context is fraying.
A recent Pew Research survey indicated that Americans are nearly split on the existence of the American dream. Growing distrust of the media has reached record levels, leading many to inhabit narratives shaped more by their personal media consumption than by objective truths.
Trump’s nine years of disjointed rants have significantly undermined public confidence in fundamental concepts and institutions that Americans once viewed as essential: credible news, democracy, and the integrity of elections.
His political model has proven effective enough to secure support from a substantial segment of the electorate. During a potential second term, one can expect Trump to amplify his personality cult while Democrats may again misjudge the strength of their opponent.
The nation Trump would govern today is markedly different from the one that removed him from office four years ago. During this period, numerous Americans have indicated through polling that their loyalty to Trump supersedes their commitment to the Constitution. The willingness to entertain alternatives to democracy is at levels reminiscent of the crises experienced in the 1930s.
Understanding his base, Trump has reciprocated their loyalty with a series of increasingly outrageous and aggressive proclamations, including promises to seize territories like Panama and Greenland and plans to pardon nearly 1,000 federal offenders involved in the January 6 Capitol attack.
What’s even more alarming are Trump’s overt intentions to “suspend” federal law to prosecute his political rivals. He has articulated these plans over a hundred times during the campaign, and he rarely refrains from expressing his animosity toward political adversaries like Liz Cheney and Merrick Garland. Soon, Trump could occupy the Oval Office with minimal restrictions on his capacity for revenge.
A basic understanding of political dynamics reveals that the America envisioned by Trump cannot coexist with a democratic framework—his most ardent supporters appear uninterested in participating in a constitutional democracy.
An increasing number of Republicans seem to align with Trump’s authoritarian tendencies. Just a year ago, three out of ten Republican voters expressed a desire for a president “willing to break rules and laws.” That figure is now approaching half of the Republican base.
A recent Monmouth University poll echoed these findings. When queried about concerns regarding Trump’s intentions to suspend laws to imprison his political adversaries, the majority of Republicans indicated that they were unconcerned.
Remarkably, the proportion of Republicans expressing unease over Trump’s potential law suspensions has diminished each month since summer.
The issue extends beyond the core MAGA supporters; even independent voters leaning toward Trump appear increasingly accepting of a law-defying presidency. In June, 68% of these independents expressed concern about Trump suspending laws, but by December, that figure had fallen to 55%.
The alarming prospect for 2025 lies not in the possibility of Trump circumventing the democratic process, but in the reality that he may not even need to. Both staunch Trump supporters and independent voters who lean his way continue to move rightward in their tolerance for potential transgressions from a Trump administration.
If Democrats believe they can rely on the same anti-Trump narrative that propelled them in 2020, they are gravely mistaken. That audience has evaporated and shows no signs of returning. Democrats are citing laws to individuals armed with swords.
A substantial portion of the American populace harbors skepticism and alienation towards democracy, being open to extreme authoritarian “reforms” as an escape from that disillusionment.
Many feel fatigued by news cycles and harbor mistrust toward opposing factions. These are the individuals who will ultimately determine the extent to which Trump transforms our government in the coming four years.
Currently, only one political faction appears to be engaging with them, which poses a dire threat to democracy.
