Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has spent more than a year seeking unity among House Republicans when disputes and disorder have become common. He now faces a bigger challenge on Friday when he will try to secure another term in a Donald Trump presidency where his party also controls the Senate. The vote to choose the next speaker comes as the GOP holds slimmer margins in power.
The reserved speaker—who rose after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was removed by a GOP revolt—has his conference’s formal backing after winning a vote in November. A last-minute funding agreement in December to prevent a government shutdown has, however, led some Republicans to question whether they will back Johnson again.
This uncertainty raises the risk that the House could remain leaderless for days or even weeks. That could delay certifying electoral votes on January 6, with Trump’s January 20 inauguration looming.
No other business can proceed until a speaker is chosen. Johnson has emphasised the urgency of organising Congress swiftly for national security reasons, citing the fatal New Orleans truck attack on New Year’s Day.
Role of Trump’s Endorsement
Johnson’s success in retaining his title may hinge on Trump’s support. On Monday, the former and future president endorsed him fully on his platform, saying that Johnson was “a good, hard working, religious man” who would “do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN.”
When the House gathers on Friday, electing a speaker will be the first order of business. To win, a candidate needs a majority of all votes cast.
With Republicans holding 219 seats and Democrats 215, a nominee needs 218 votes if everyone votes. Members may back either party’s choice—Johnson for the GOP and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., for the Democrats—or vote for someone else, abstain, or vote “present” (which lowers the vote threshold). If no one reaches 218, the vote repeats.
Reasons Johnson Might Lose Support
One Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., has already said he will not support Johnson. With all Democrats expected to vote for Jeffries, Johnson must win over almost all other Republicans.
That gives every Republican member leverage to seek concessions from Johnson—such as promises on legislation or budget strategy. Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., has even listed specific demands.
Other Republicans may back different candidates like Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., or Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, leader of the hardline House Freedom Caucus.
Dissatisfaction stems partially from Johnson’s handling of the December spending extension, which avoided a shutdown but drew opposition from Trump and Elon Musk. The final agreement trimmed down the original package and postponed debt ceiling debate until 2025.
Both Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., and Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., remain undecided on whom they will support.
Can Johnson Still Secure the Speakership?
Lawmakers remember well the three-week stalemate that followed McCarthy’s removal in October 2023. Eventually, Johnson emerged as an unexpected compromise figure.
Today’s stakes are higher since Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House. Every day spent without a speaker means a delay in Trump’s agenda.
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., recently called McCarthy’s removal “the single stupidest thing I’ve ever seen in politics.” He added that removing Johnson now “would equally be as stupid.”
After Trump’s endorsement on Monday, several wavering Republicans announced their support for Johnson. Rep. Josh Brecheen, R-Okla., said he would vote for Johnson and described it as “dead wrong” to suggest otherwise. Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, said Trump’s backing “is big and may rescue Johnson… If DJT supports Johnson, we need to rally around Johnson.” Elon Musk echoed the sentiment on X.
What If No Speaker Is Elected?
The House cannot do any business without a speaker. If no speaker is chosen by Monday, questions arise over whether Congress can still certify the Electoral College results for the 2024 election.
Georgetown University professor David Super said Congress could still meet jointly to count votes even without a House speaker. Vice President Kamala Harris would preside over the count.
However, Florida State law professor Michael Morley disagrees. He asserts that a speaker must be chosen before the House can approve rules, appoint vote counters, or adjourn for the joint session. He noted that the US has never failed to choose a speaker in time to certify votes.
Rep. Jamie Raskin, a constitutional law professor turned member of Congress, said he plans to study how Congress can count Electoral College votes without a speaker. He called it a question of how the House can proceed without its leader, adding that he expects Congress will still convene on January 6.
