Over the last four months, William Stein, a technology analyst with Truist Securities, has tested Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) system three times, answering Elon Musk’s call to experience its capabilities.
Tesla claims its vehicles equipped with this technology can travel independently with minimal human input. However, Stein found each test drive troubling, as the cars executed maneuvers he deemed unsafe or illegal. His latest attempt earlier this month left his 16-year-old son, who accompanied him, feeling “terrified.”
Stein’s experiences, combined with a fatal Tesla crash in Washington State involving a motorcyclist and the FSD system, have heightened scrutiny from federal regulators. These officials have been investigating Tesla’s automated systems for more than two years due to multiple crashes raising safety concerns.
Challenges in Achieving Autonomy at Scale
Skepticism about Tesla’s ability to deploy a fully autonomous fleet at scale has grown among observers of autonomous vehicle technology. Stein doubts the company is anywhere near delivering a fleet of self-driving robotaxis by next year, despite Musk’s assurances.
Tesla is approaching a critical juncture. Musk has expressed confidence that Full Self-Driving will surpass human drivers in safety by the end of this year or next.
In the coming weeks, Tesla plans to showcase a vehicle designed specifically as a robotaxi. To proceed, regulators will require proof that the system outperforms human drivers in safety and adheres to national vehicle standards.
Currently, Full Self-Driving is in use by approximately 500,000 Tesla owners, accounting for over one-fifth of all Tesla vehicles on the road. Buyers paid upwards of $8,000 for the optional feature, which Tesla emphasizes still requires drivers to remain alert and ready to intervene.
Tesla also monitors driver behavior, revoking access to FSD for those who fail to supervise the system appropriately. Recently, the company rebranded the feature as “Full Self-Driving (Supervised).”
Stein advises investors to critically evaluate Tesla’s FSD project, highlighting its lengthy development timeline, revenue generation, and use on public roads. Whether the system fulfills its promises remains an open question.
