Anticipation surrounds the upcoming mayoral race in New York City as the current mayor faces a criminal indictment while a growing field of candidates emerges to challenge him.
Despite accusations of bribery, wire fraud, and soliciting contributions from foreign nationals, Mayor Eric Adams (D) has reaffirmed his commitment to seeking reelection in 2025.
He has entered a not guilty plea and claims his primary focus remains on governing the city. However, more than six other Democrats have announced their candidacies for the June primary, indicating a highly competitive race.
As speculation mounts regarding additional candidates, including former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D), the political landscape is likely to become increasingly tumultuous.
Political strategists in New York suggest that voters are inclined to support the candidate who effectively addresses their everyday concerns and demonstrates a willingness to disrupt the established order.
“I think the appetite for disruptive politics is going to be with us through the mayoral election,” Democratic strategist Basil Smikle noted. “I think many voters see the mayor as a political disruptor.”
Heading into the election, Adams already faced a precarious political future, despite his successful moderate campaign in 2021 that resonated with working-class voters. His approval ratings have suffered due to criticism regarding inconsistent crime statistics, housing challenges, and the growing migrant population, all of which have strained the city’s resources.
The emergence of bribery accusations has introduced an even greater challenge, as Adams is now the first sitting New York City mayor to face criminal charges during his term.
Allegations of corruption within Adams’s administration have remained prominent in the news, particularly following recent FBI raids on the homes of several staff members. Most outstanding, prosecutors charged his former top aide, Ingrid Lewis-Martin, and her son with bribery earlier this week.
A Marist College poll conducted shortly after the indictment revealed that nearly 70 percent of respondents believe Adams should resign, yet he has shown no intention of stepping down or withdrawing his reelection bid.
Scheduled for April, Adams’s trial will take place just two months before the primary elections. As the indictment revealed, various Democratic contenders wasted no time in joining the race, both prior to and following the charges.
Among the candidates are several high-profile current and former city officials and legislators, including City Comptroller Brad Lander, former Comptroller Scott Stringer, state Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos, state Assembly member Zohran Mamdani, and former Assembly member Michael Blake.
Additionally, former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson has entered the race. Democratic strategists remain divided on Adams’s prospects in the election, given the multitude of political and legal challenges he faces. “No,” declared a New York-based Democratic strategist when asked about Adams’s chances in the election. “That’s as short and sweet as it can be.”
Adams’s campaign suffered a delay on Monday when the city’s Campaign Finance Board denied his request for millions in matching funds, citing allegations against him, including campaign finance violations during his 2021 campaign and his failure to comply with the board’s inquiries into his actions.
Following his indictment, his fundraising efforts plummeted, with only one contribution of $250 received in the two and a half weeks since the charges were made public. Adams explained that he had intentionally slowed fundraising after reaching his target, asserting that he has sufficient funds to meet the primary spending limit.
His financial totals for the final quarter of 2024 will be disclosed in the upcoming new year. Despite these developments, Adams appears to be forging a closer relationship with incoming President Trump.
He was spotted alongside the president-elect at a UFC fight earlier this month and has met with Trump’s “border czar,” Tom Homan.
Adams contends that these interactions aim to represent the city and build strong ties with the new administration, yet speculation has arisen regarding a potential pardon from Trump.
While Adams initially avoided confirming his intention to run as a Democrat, he has denied rumors about switching to the Republican Party. His Democratic rivals have quickly seized on his legal issues and connections with Trump.
Nevertheless, Adams retains some inherent advantages as the incumbent, and strategists suggest that none of the current candidates possess the “caliber” to defeat him, leaving room for new contenders to enter the fray.
“More so than nature, politics abhors a vacuum,” a strategist commented. “People will see opportunity and jump at the chance to run in this race.” One name that has emerged prominently is Cuomo, who served as governor of New York for ten years before resigning in 2021 despite investigations into multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denies.
His administration also faced scrutiny for allegedly concealing the number of nursing home deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the controversies surrounding him, strategists assert that Cuomo’s potential candidacy could dramatically alter the race and should not be dismissed.
Smikle, a former executive director of the state party, believes Cuomo still enjoys a degree of support, particularly among voters seeking “good management” and “effective governance.”
During the early days of the pandemic, Cuomo garnered widespread praise for his leadership in managing the crisis, and he was even mentioned as a potential presidential candidate due to his gubernatorial record before becoming embroiled in controversy.
“I think particularly among white and more moderate voters in the city, a lot of them that are focused on good management. I think Andrew still has some support there,” Smikle added.
The Republican side of the race remains relatively quiet, with only a few candidates expressing interest. This includes 2021 GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa, City Council Minority Leader Joe Borelli, and radio host and former mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis.
Republican strategist Matt Coleman remarked that he is uncertain about who might emerge from the GOP field, noting Sliwa’s considerable loss in the previous election and Catsimatidis’s status as a subject of speculation regarding his candidacy.
Reports indicate that Borelli has communicated to close associates that he would only run if Adams resigns, thereby triggering a special election rather than directly challenging him in 2025 as an underdog.
Coleman suggested that Adams might have a pathway to success within the Republican Party due to his appeal and the gains Trump achieved in the city during the recent presidential election, especially as several of Adams’s Democratic challengers position themselves further left.
He also referenced the historical precedent of New York electing Republican mayors, such as Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, who later shifted to independent status.
“I think that a lot of the left-wing policies that have been enacted in New York got a little blowback at the polls,” Coleman observed, pointing out that Adams is not closely associated with those policies.
“[Adams] is a guy who is committed to, throughout his term so far, the saying from City Hall has been we’re the ‘GSD,’ the ‘Get Stuff Done’ administration,” he continued. “And that’s great. And that message appeals to a lot of folks because … the concept of inertia, especially in New York, is a big thing.”
