In 2023, it’s highly anticipated that Donald Trump will face criminal charges. Predicting this outcome might not be surprising, considering the ongoing investigations led by federal and state prosecutors into his actions, which many find questionable at best.
Yet, given Trump’s long-standing reputation for evading accountability, this development is noteworthy. There is growing reason to believe that his immunity may be fading.
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The retrieval of classified documents from his Mar-a-Lago residence last summer by federal authorities was a pivotal event. This prediction also draws strength from the historic conclusion of the House Jan. 6 committee’s investigation and its criminal referrals targeting Trump and others.
However, the Mar-a-Lago case could be the most straightforward of Trump’s legal troubles. Former federal prosecutors have noted in a Just Security memo that a strong foundation exists for charges against Trump in relation to the documents.
The recent rejection of Trump’s special master appeal — even by judges he appointed — has brought him closer to potential charges for mishandling classified documents and obstructing justice.
While the problems of Jan. 6 make it a challenging legal path, it doesn’t rule out additional charges from that investigation, now under the supervision of special counsel Jack Smith.
Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Smith following Trump’s 2024 campaign announcement. Smith is also handling the Justice Department’s probe into the classified document case.
Evidence from the Jan. 6 committee suggests possible charges of insurrection, conspiracy, and obstruction, stemming from Trump’s role in the attack on the Capitol and his challenge to democratic processes.
The Justice Department may have further evidence and resources to bolster the case. While it’s possible the DOJ has exculpatory evidence in Trump’s favor, that outcome appears slim.
More charges may also arise from state-level investigations. Double jeopardy laws wouldn’t shield Trump from prosecution by both federal and state authorities, even for similar crimes.
This was underscored by a recent Supreme Court ruling, which Trump might want to reconsider, given his frequent misunderstandings of the concept, as MSNBC’s Steve Benen has highlighted.
The findings from the Jan. 6 committee could also strengthen the investigation by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in Georgia. As noted by Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post, the facts align well with potential Georgia charges, such as interference in election duties, solicitation to commit election fraud, and conspiracy to commit election fraud.
Willis has reportedly presented new witnesses to the grand jury beyond those who testified before the Jan. 6 committee, suggesting she may seek an indictment in early 2023.
Additionally, Trump still faces legal troubles in New York, where the Trump Organization has already been found guilty on other charges. With all these developments, Trump may still avoid charges, but that scenario seems increasingly improbable.
Prosecutors looking to charge Trump are likely to act this year, given the complications that would arise if he’s a candidate in the 2024 presidential race. Charging a presidential contender would lead to uncharted legal territory, yet Trump’s prospects for the coming year appear bleak.
